Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesMile High Report homepageHorizontal - WhiteMile High Reporta Denver Broncos communityFollow Mile High Report online:Follow Mile High Report on TwitterFollow Mile High Report on FacebookLog in or sign upLog InSign UpSite searchSearchSearchMile High Report main menuFanpostsFanshotsSectionsBroncosOddsShopAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 321 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Broncos NewsBroncos ScheduleBroncos PodcastsBroncos Film RoomBroncos RosterBroncos Injury UpdatesFull ArchiveBroncos StoriesScheduleRosterStatsOdds Shop About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub ✕3 & Out with Bolts From The Blue’s Michael Peterson New Colby Wadman Jersey ,14commentsHow does a Los Angeles Chargers’ fan see the AFC West Landscape?MDTOne of the things that always sticks in the back of my mind as I write about my favorite team is the ever present subconscious bias I have. To combat this, I’ve always attempted to look at the Denver Broncos from an objective standpoint. Even still, I know it’s there. That’s just one reason why I thought it would be illuminating to speak with fans from a rival team in the AFC West. Michael Peterson is the Deputy Managing Editor of Bolts From the Blue, SB Nation’s Los Angeles Chargers site.Our conversation has been lightly edited. 1st & 10Quietly the Chargers GM Tom Telesco has built one of the sturdiest rosters top to bottom in the entire league. Everyone’s got their eyes on Patrick Mahomes, but what are your expectations for the Chargers as we approach the 2019 season? Expectations are obviously pretty high, and it’s tough for them not to be. After a rough stretch in 2015 and ‘16, the team has finally had back-to-back winning seasons and are coming off a 12-4 season. We also can’t forget that they also got their first win at Arrowhead Stadium, and first playoff victory, in over five years.Mike Williams with a crucial touchdown. My expectations are also high, but I don’t believe they’ll be able to top their 12-4 record from last year. There were far too many games that came down to the end and they almost all worked out in the favor of the Chargers. However, a 10-6, 11-5 record is still very attainable if they win the games they should, at least on paper.There is likely a dropped game to the Raiders or Broncos, and likely a split with the Chiefs, plus tough match-ups against the Bears Devontae Booker Jersey , Colts, and Steelers. Don’t get me wrong, I’m hopeful, but there’s plenty of challenges ahead.2nd and 8At least from what I’ve seen, the offensive line and linebacker corps look like the two biggest question marks. Would you say that’s accurate? What are the biggest concerns you have with the team?I’d say that’s accurate, for sure. The offensive tackle spot is the largest question mark, by far. With Russell Okung out with an “undisclosed injury” and the team doing nothing in the offseason to provide more depth outside of the Trey Pipkins’ selection in the third round this year, they really did nothing to make fans feel better about the lack of depth.The linebacker group is actually one of the more fortified positions, especially after the team signed Thomas Davis who is the picture of consistency and longevity in this league. In a room full of guys who can’t stay healthy, Davis needs to pass out all of his secrets to the rest of the defense. With Kyzir White coming back from injury and the emergence of Uchenna Nwosu at the OTTO position, they’ve got some young guys ready to roll behind incumbent starters Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown.Outside of the OTs, my biggest worry is with the defensive interior and whether or not the addition of Jerry Tillery will make the needed impact on the team’s recent deficiency at stopping the run. Other than that, I feel pretty good about the rest of the defense.Tillery was one of my favorite prospects in the 2019 Draft. 3rd and 5I always value outsider’s perspective as a way to combat my own orange shades. How do you see the Broncos moves since the teams last played to end the regular season? How do you see them this year?As an alumni of the University of Iowa, I know firsthand how much of a difference-maker Noah Fant is at the tight end position. He’s a mismatch waiting to happen and hopefully the Broncos are able to capitalize on what he’s good at instead of forcing him to be something he is not.Joe Flacco has the best arm of a Broncos’ quarterback that I’ve seen in some time and you just hope their offensive coordinator can utilize that with the great pass-catchers around him in Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders.They also had a heck of a draft, in my opinion. Dalton Risner is a great get where they got him and Dre’Mont Jones may surprise a lot of people after he fell in this year’s draft.Going into this year Andy Janovich Jersey , they’ve got the right pieces on offense and defense to be in any game against anybody. Bradley Chubb and Von Miller are going to be one of the best pairings in the NFL at their positions. Phillip Lindsay is going to be great and Royce Freeman may take a step forward, as well. There’s plenty to be excited about if you’re a Broncos’ fan in 2019.Von pressuring Rivers into a pick in the Broncos’ last game of 2018. 4th and 1: How do you foresee the AFC West finishing, and any final thoughts?My predictions:1. Chiefs (11-5)2. Chargers (10-6)3. Broncos (7-9)4. Raiders (6-10)My thoughts: I don’t trust the Raiders until they finally prove it. Also, Tom Cable kills offensive lines and I don’t trust that Trent Brown will pan out. The offense should be much improved with AB and Tyrell Williams, but that defense is still suspect. The Broncos will likely have more luck outside of the division than in it, leading to an average record. I think the Chargers drop one or more games than last year, but stay up in the division. The Chiefs are going to be the team to beat for me until proven otherwise, as well. I hope this division becomes the Wild West and leaves us fans wanting more in this coming season. With the recent success of Sean McVay in LA, leading the Rams to the Super Bowl in his second season as a head coach, every team seemed to be wanting the “next Sean McVay” when the NFL head coaching carousel was still spinning. So much to the point that I heard the color guy making a joke about McVay’s barista getting an interview with the Cardinals. This got me interested in how well head coaches have done in their first head coaching job in the NFL. This will be a follow, up to my article from a few weeks ago regarding the success (or lack thereof) of “recycled” head coaches.So there have been more than 400 different men who have been the head coach of an NFL team. Not wanting to pour through that much data, I restricted this to coaches who got there first NFL head coaching job this century (or really close to this century - I included 1999). I also excluded guys who were interim head coaches so they have less than 16 games of total head coach experience in the NFL this century. That left 94 head coaches. Overall first time head coaches this century have a combined record of 2972 and 3103 which is a 0.478 winning percentage. Of course there are plenty of outliers to this average, so let’s look more deeply at the data and focus on the biggest outliers (for good and bad). The standard deviation of this data set is 0.138, so a coach who has a winning percentage greater than one standard deviation above the average is doing something right, and a coach with a winning percentage one standard below the average (or worse) will soon be fired (unless they are in Cleveland). Who are the coaches who stunk it up in there first head coaching jobs in this century? Note that Bill Belichick’s first head coaching job Max Garcia Jersey , in Cleveland, was not begun this century. One standard deviation below average is 0.351. There are some familiar names on that list. Vance Joseph, obviously, but also former Bronco defensive coordinators Mike Nolan and Dennis Allen along with Mike Shanahan’s son, Kyle, who many (me included) wanted us to hire when we hired Joseph. We also see for Faider head coach, Lane Kiffin, on that list. Also note that Josh McDaniels was not bad enough to be on this list. The “good” head coaches are they men who have gotten their team to perform at one standard deviation (or greater) above average. Those men have a winning percentage of 0.627 or better. The table of them from this century is below. I also included others who are above 0.600 It is interesting to note that both Bruce Arians and Mike McCarthy were recently fired from their first NFL head coaching gigs and that there was talk of the Steelers not renewing Mike Tomlin’s contract. It is also interesting to note that of the 12 teams that made the playoffs this season, six of them have their head coach on that list and if I had extended it just a bit further it would have been 7 (John Harbaugh has a winning percentage of 0.591).Sean McVay Sean PaytonAnthony LynnFrank ReichMatt NagyDoug PedersonJohn Harbaugh* (0.591)For those who prefer to see this data plotted graphically, I prepared this, since it is informative to see where the winning percentages line up for all 97 First time NFL head coaches who started this century as head coachesPlease don’t try to read the names on the X-axis without magnification. You need to look no further than those big orange dots to see why many in Bronco Country are leery of hiring another first time head coach. The last two that we hired were not very successful and only lasted two (or so) seasons. Also for those who like to see how the data is spread, I ordered the data on the plot from high to low winning percentage. That is shown below.